Hawaii 4 votes
Biden is favored to win
| Candidate | Predicted Vote % | Win Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 34.9% | <1% |
| Joe Biden | 65.1% | >99% |
About Hawaii
For many of us, Hawaii is the land of tropical beaches, piña coladas, and coconut water. If you’re a Republican politician, though, Hawaii is the opposite of relaxing; it’s a grind, where every vote is a grueling battle. Hawaii is a safe blue state, having voted consistently for the Democratic presidential candidate in every election since 1988 (including Hawaiian-born Barack Obama), and with all blue seats except one in the local Hawaiian House of Representatives. Former presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard is a (soon to be former) representative from Hawaii who advocated policies similar to those of Bernie Sanders, showing the strength of progressives in the state. However, the state still chose Biden over Sanders in the primary. While President Trump might not be counting on Hawaii's electoral votes this election, we'll all be counting on its beautiful beaches once we can travel again. Aloha!
Chance of winning over time
We run our model at least once a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.
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Nov 3
Oct 12