Iowa 6 votes

Trump is favored to win

55%
45%
50.5%
49.5%
3.35
+1.1
Candidate Predicted Vote % Win Prob.
Donald Trump 50.5% 55%
Joe Biden 49.5% 45%

About Iowa

Iowa is a swing state with almost equal registered democrat and republican voters, and a large amount of third party or independent voters at 36% of registered voters. Iowa is know for being the first state to hold its primary caucus every year. Current hot button issues are tax cuts and workforce training. Voting by mail is pretty accessible in Iowa with an absentee ballot request form automatically sent to all registered voters and flexible options for ID.

Chance of winning over time

We run our model at least once a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.

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Demographically similar states

All states

Past Election History

2016
Clinton 41.7% Trump 51.2%
2012
Obama 52.0% Romney 46.2%
2008
Obama 53.9% McCain 44.4%
2004
Kerry 49.2% Bush 49.9%
2000
Gore 48.5% Bush 48.2%

Recent polls

CiviqsLV 11/1
Biden 49.0% Trump 48.0%
Change ResearchLV 11/1
Biden 47.0% Trump 47.0%
Data for ProgressLV 11/1
Biden 47.0% Trump 49.0%
Emerson CollegeLV 10/31
Biden 47.4% Trump 48.6%
Opinion Savvy/InsiderAdvantageLV 10/30
Biden 46.1% Trump 47.8%
Selzer & Co.LV 10/29
Biden 41.0% Trump 48.0%
Quinnipiac UniversityLV 10/27
Biden 46.0% Trump 47.0%
RABA ResearchLV 10/24
Biden 50.0% Trump 46.0%
Emerson CollegeLV 10/21
Biden 48.1% Trump 48.0%
RMG ResearchLV 10/21
Biden 47.0% Trump 47.0%
Siena College/The New York Times UpshotLV 10/20
Biden 46.0% Trump 43.0%
Opinion Savvy/InsiderAdvantageLV 10/19
Biden 45.1% Trump 44.6%
Monmouth UniversityRV 10/19
Biden 47.0% Trump 48.0%
David Binder ResearchLV 10/13
Biden 44.0% Trump 50.0%
Data for ProgressLV 10/11
Biden 47.0% Trump 48.0%
YouGovLV 10/9
Biden 49.0% Trump 49.0%
National Research Inc.LV 10/8
Biden 47.0% Trump 45.0%
CiviqsLV 10/6
Biden 48.0% Trump 47.0%
Quinnipiac UniversityLV 10/5
Biden 50.0% Trump 45.0%
Data for ProgressLV 9/28
Biden 44.0% Trump 47.0%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research GroupLV 9/27
Biden 47.0% Trump 49.0%
RABA ResearchLV 9/26
Biden 48.0% Trump 46.0%
Monmouth UniversityRV 9/22
Biden 44.0% Trump 50.0%
Siena College/The New York Times UpshotLV 9/22
Biden 45.0% Trump 42.0%
Selzer & Co.LV 9/17
Biden 47.0% Trump 47.0%
National Research Inc.LV 9/2
Biden 43.0% Trump 50.0%
Polls consist of LV and RV polls ranked C and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.

Presidential Election Model 2020

About Us

ORACLE of Blair is a project by seniors at Montgomery Blair High School in Silver Spring, Maryland. It was created during the Fall 2020 Political Statistics course taught by Mr. David Stein. Questions for the students about the model can be sent to mbhs.polistat@gmail.com, while Mr. Stein can be reached directly through the Blair website.

Please Note

Any views or opinions expressed on this site are those of the students in Montgomery Blair High School's 2020 Political Statistics class and do not necessarily reflect the official position of Montgomery Blair High School.