New Jersey 14 votes
Biden is favored to win
3%
97%
40.4%
59.6%
-6.18
-19.2
| Candidate | Predicted Vote % | Win Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 40.4% | 3% |
| Joe Biden | 59.6% | 97% |
About New Jersey
New Jersey has gone Democratic in the past seven presidential elections after voting Republican in the previous six. Thanks to its dense population, the state is a valuable prize, worth 14 electoral votes. Key issues for voters include the legality of cannabis, the opioid crisis, education, property taxes, and infrastructure (especially after the Chris Christie New Jersey Bridge Scandal). New Jersey is home to the first drive-in movie theater, first baseball game, and first seaside resort.
Chance of winning over time
We run our model at least once a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.
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Nov 3
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Past Election History
Clinton 55.0%
Trump 41%
Obama 58.3%
Romney 40.5%
Obama 57.3%
McCain 41.7%
Kerry 53%
Bush 46.2%
Gore 56.1%
Bush 40.3%
Recent polls
Research Co.LV 11/1
Biden 56.0%
Trump 38.0%
Rutgers UniversityRV 10/24
Biden 59.0%
Trump 37.0%
Stockton UniversityLV 10/13
Biden 56.3%
Trump 35.8%
Biden 52.0%
Trump 35.0%
Emerson CollegeLV 9/7
Biden 57.89%
Trump 39.63%