California 55 votes
Biden is favored to win
<1%
>99%
33.7%
66.3%
-12.96
-32.7
| Candidate | Predicted Vote % | Win Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 33.7% | <1% |
| Joe Biden | 66.3% | >99% |
About California
Ah, California, our most populous state, as well as one of the most progressive. Its conservative roots as the home of Ronald Reagan can still be glimpsed in its Republican-leaning inland regions, but it is now solidly liberal thanks to its vast urban population, high proportion of college-educated whites, and large number of naturalized citizens. In fact, a quarter of the US's immigrants live in California. Homelessness and affordable housing are big issues in California due to the state's high property values, while climate change is also a pressing concern due to wildfires and water shortages.
Chance of winning over time
We run our model at least once a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.
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Nov 3
Oct 12
Past Election History
Clinton 61.7%
Trump 31.6%
Obama 60.2%
Romney 37.1%
Obama 61.0%
McCain 37.0%
Kerry 54.3%
Bush 44.4%
Gore 53.5%
Bush 41.7%
Recent polls
David Binder ResearchLV 11/1
Biden 62.0%
Trump 31.0%
Biden 65.0%
Trump 29.0%
Biden 58.0%
Trump 32.0%
SurveyUSALV 9/28
Biden 59.0%
Trump 32.0%
Biden 67.0%
Trump 28.0%
Biden 60.0%
Trump 31.0%
Spry StrategiesLV 9/1
Biden 56.21%
Trump 39.02%
David Binder ResearchLV 8/24
Biden 61.0%
Trump 31.0%