Texas 38 votes

We've got atossup

53%
47%
50.6%
49.4%
7.2
+1.1
Candidate Predicted Vote % Win Prob.
Donald Trump 50.6% 53%
Joe Biden 49.4% 47%

About Texas

It's the lone star state! Texas has a whopping 38 electoral votes which will influence this election. Texas has two Republican senators, although the Democratic vote was higher than the Republican vote in the past five elections. In this competitive state, some hot-button topics are Border Security/ Immigration, Health Care, Political Leadership/Corruption. Despite the divisive political stances in Texas, the state motto is "Friendship," and it's completely legal to shoot and kill Big Foot if you see him (or her).

Chance of winning over time

We run our model at least once a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Nov 3

Oct 12

Demographically similar states

All states

Past Election History

2016
Clinton 43.2% Trump 52.2%
2012
Obama 41.4% Romney 57.2%
2008
Obama 43.7% McCain 55.5%
2004
Kerry 38.2% Bush 61.1%
2000
Gore 38% Bush 59.3%

Recent polls

Data for ProgressLV 11/1
Biden 49.0% Trump 48.0%
AtlasIntelLV 10/31
Biden 47.3% Trump 50.0%
Emerson CollegeLV 10/31
Biden 48.7% Trump 49.7%
Morning ConsultLV 10/31
Biden 48.1% Trump 48.1%
RMG ResearchLV 10/28
Biden 46.0% Trump 50.0%
Gravis MarketingLV 10/28
Biden 45.0% Trump 50.0%
YouGovLV 10/27
Biden 47.0% Trump 49.0%
University of Massachusetts LowellLV 10/26
Biden 47.0% Trump 48.0%
Data for ProgressLV 10/25
Biden 49.0% Trump 48.0%
Siena College/The New York Times UpshotLV 10/25
Biden 43.0% Trump 47.0%
University of Texas at TylerRV 10/20
Biden 46.0% Trump 44.0%
YouGovLV 10/20
Biden 44.7% Trump 50.0%
Morning ConsultLV 10/20
Biden 48.0% Trump 47.0%
Quinnipiac UniversityLV 10/19
Biden 47.0% Trump 47.0%
Data for ProgressLV 10/18
Biden 47.0% Trump 46.0%
Morning ConsultLV 10/11
Biden 47.0% Trump 49.0%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchLV 10/6
Biden 44.0% Trump 51.0%
CiviqsLV 10/6
Biden 48.0% Trump 48.0%
Data for ProgressLV 10/5
Biden 47.0% Trump 45.0%
YouGovLV 10/4
Biden 45.0% Trump 50.0%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research GroupLV 9/27
Biden 47.0% Trump 49.0%
University of Massachusetts LowellLV 9/25
Biden 46.0% Trump 50.0%
Siena College/The New York Times UpshotLV 9/22
Biden 43.0% Trump 46.0%
Data for ProgressLV 9/22
Biden 45.0% Trump 46.0%
Quinnipiac UniversityLV 9/21
Biden 45.0% Trump 50.0%
YouGovLV 9/18
Biden 46.0% Trump 48.0%
Morning ConsultLV 9/7
Biden 46.0% Trump 46.0%
University of Texas at TylerRV 9/2
Biden 44.0% Trump 43.0%
Morning ConsultLV 8/30
Biden 47.0% Trump 48.0%
Data for ProgressLV 8/25
Biden 48.0% Trump 45.0%
The Tyson GroupLV 8/25
Biden 48.0% Trump 44.0%
Polls consist of LV and RV polls ranked C and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.

Presidential Election Model 2020

About Us

ORACLE of Blair is a project by seniors at Montgomery Blair High School in Silver Spring, Maryland. It was created during the Fall 2020 Political Statistics course taught by Mr. David Stein. Questions for the students about the model can be sent to mbhs.polistat@gmail.com, while Mr. Stein can be reached directly through the Blair website.

Please Note

Any views or opinions expressed on this site are those of the students in Montgomery Blair High School's 2020 Political Statistics class and do not necessarily reflect the official position of Montgomery Blair High School.