New Hampshire 4 votes
Biden is favored to win
22%
78%
45.0%
55.0%
-0.21
-10.1
| Candidate | Predicted Vote % | Win Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 45.0% | 22% |
| Joe Biden | 55.0% | 78% |
About New Hampshire
Drug abuse is the most important New Hampshire issue. It is closely followed by jobs and the economy. While a plurality of New Hampshire residents are not affiliated with the two major parties, party registration is split close to 33-33-33. New Hampshire is considered the closest and most competitive state in the nation; most years it is decided by less than 2%. According to its "Live Free or Die" state motto, seatbelts and motorcycle helmets are not required. New Hampshire features the first recorded "incident" of alien abduction in American history.
Chance of winning over time
We run our model at least once a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Nov 3
Oct 12
Past Election History
Clinton 47%
Trump 46.6%
Obama 52%
Romney 46.4%
Obama 54.1%
McCain 44.5%
Kerry 50.4%
Bush 49%
Gore 46.8%
Bush 48.1%
Recent polls
American Research GroupLV 10/28
Biden 58.0%
Trump 39.0%
University of New HampshireLV 10/28
Biden 53.0%
Trump 45.0%
Biden 53.0%
Trump 43.0%
University of New HampshireLV 10/12
Biden 55.0%
Trump 43.0%
Suffolk UniversityLV 10/12
Biden 51.0%
Trump 40.8%
Emerson CollegeLV 10/1
Biden 53.1%
Trump 45.3%
American Research GroupLV 9/28
Biden 53.0%
Trump 44.0%
University of New HampshireLV 9/28
Biden 53.0%
Trump 44.0%
Biden 56.0%
Trump 42.0%
Biden 53.0%
Trump 44.0%
Biden 45.0%
Trump 42.0%