Oregon 7 votes
Biden is favored to win
| Candidate | Predicted Vote % | Win Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 42.7% | <1% |
| Joe Biden | 57.3% | >99% |
About Oregon
If you’ve ever played the classic game Oregon Trail, the state of Oregon might bring up memories of bison, wide plains, and of course, dysentery. While Oregon today has only 2 of those 3, it still captures the idea of the wide, untamed Western expanse in a Democratic, coastal context. Oregon is an overwhelmingly blue state, with both senators and all but one representative belonging to the Democratic party, despite having large rural areas that skew Republican. Oregon has a wide variety of national parks and forests (the federal government owns over 50% of the land in Oregon!) that are a key issue in the state, with the threat of climate change and nonrenewable resources threatening these environmental enclaves. Despite being close to the much more progressive state of California, Oregon is a moderate Democratic state, with voters overwhelmingly picking Biden over either Warren or Sanders in the 2020 Democratic primaries, yet voting for the Democratic party in presidential elections since 2000.
Chance of winning over time
We run our model at least once a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.
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Nov 3
Oct 12