Pennsylvania 20 votes

Biden is favored to win

38%
62%
48.2%
51.8%
0.6
-3.6
Candidate Predicted Vote % Win Prob.
Donald Trump 48.2% 38%
Joe Biden 51.8% 62%

About Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania is a large, mountainous state with an extremely diverse array of large cities and small towns. Pennsylvania is a heated battleground state, with three very close Congressional elections and very narrow margins in the previous presidential races. Gun control is a major issue in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania boasts a vast State Game Land system for year-round hunting. Fireworks are legal in Pennsylvania, though all neighboring states prohibit them. Hershey's and several potato chip companies are based in Pennsylvania.

Chance of winning over time

We run our model at least once a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.

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Nov 3

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Demographically similar states

All states

Past Election History

2016
Clinton 47.9% Trump 48.6%
2012
Obama 52% Romney 46.6%
2008
Obama 54.7% McCain 44.3%
2004
Kerry 51% Bush 48.5%
2000
Gore 50.6% Bush 46.4%

Recent polls

Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.LV 11/2
Biden 48.4% Trump 49.2%
Research Co.LV 11/1
Biden 50.0% Trump 44.0%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchLV 11/1
Biden 50.0% Trump 47.0%
Marist CollegeRV 11/1
Biden 50.0% Trump 46.0%
Change ResearchLV 11/1
Biden 50.0% Trump 46.0%
Monmouth UniversityRV 11/1
Biden 50.0% Trump 45.0%
IpsosLV 11/1
Biden 51.0% Trump 45.0%
Data for ProgressLV 11/1
Biden 52.0% Trump 45.0%
Opinion Savvy/InsiderAdvantageLV 10/31
Biden 47.4% Trump 48.7%
Frederick PollsLV 10/31
Biden 52.0% Trump 48.0%
Trafalgar GroupLV 10/31
Biden 45.9% Trump 47.8%
Siena College/The New York Times UpshotLV 10/31
Biden 49.0% Trump 43.0%
Morning ConsultLV 10/31
Biden 51.9% Trump 43.2%
AtlasIntelLV 10/30
Biden 48.5% Trump 49.6%
Emerson CollegeLV 10/30
Biden 51.5% Trump 46.6%
Targoz Market ResearchLV 10/30
Biden 56.0% Trump 42.0%
Harris Insights & AnalyticsLV 10/29
Biden 51.0% Trump 46.0%
ABC News/The Washington PostRV 10/29
Biden 49.0% Trump 45.0%
Muhlenberg CollegeLV 10/28
Biden 49.0% Trump 44.0%
RMG ResearchLV 10/27
Biden 51.0% Trump 45.0%
Quinnipiac UniversityLV 10/27
Biden 51.0% Trump 44.0%
YouGovLV 10/27
Biden 52.0% Trump 44.0%
CiviqsLV 10/26
Biden 52.0% Trump 45.0%
IpsosLV 10/26
Biden 51.0% Trump 44.0%
Opinion Savvy/InsiderAdvantageLV 10/25
Biden 45.5% Trump 48.4%
Trafalgar GroupLV 10/25
Biden 47.6% Trump 48.4%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeLV 10/25
Biden 50.0% Trump 44.0%
Gravis MarketingLV 10/23
Biden 51.0% Trump 44.0%
YouGovRV 10/21
Biden 51.0% Trump 44.0%
Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchRV 10/20
Biden 50.0% Trump 45.0%
SSRSRV 10/20
Biden 50.0% Trump 45.0%
Muhlenberg CollegeLV 10/20
Biden 51.0% Trump 44.0%
Morning ConsultLV 10/20
Biden 52.0% Trump 43.0%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchLV 10/19
Biden 50.0% Trump 47.0%
Change ResearchLV 10/19
Biden 49.0% Trump 47.0%
Quinnipiac UniversityLV 10/19
Biden 51.0% Trump 43.0%
Suffolk UniversityLV 10/19
Biden 48.6% Trump 42.4%
IpsosLV 10/19
Biden 49.0% Trump 45.0%
Trafalgar GroupLV 10/15
Biden 47.5% Trump 46.4%
Harris Insights & AnalyticsLV 10/15
Biden 51.0% Trump 46.0%
Opinion Savvy/InsiderAdvantageLV 10/13
Biden 45.8% Trump 42.6%
Trafalgar GroupLV 10/12
Biden 47.4% Trump 45.1%
RMG ResearchLV 10/12
Biden 49.0% Trump 43.0%
CiviqsLV 10/11
Biden 52.0% Trump 45.0%
IpsosLV 10/11
Biden 51.0% Trump 45.0%
Morning ConsultLV 10/11
Biden 52.0% Trump 44.0%
Baldwin Wallace UniversityLV 10/8
Biden 49.6% Trump 44.5%
Emerson CollegeLV 10/5
Biden 50.8% Trump 47.4%
Quinnipiac UniversityLV 10/5
Biden 54.0% Trump 41.0%
IpsosLV 10/5
Biden 50.0% Trump 45.0%
Change ResearchLV 10/4
Biden 50.0% Trump 46.0%
Monmouth UniversityRV 10/4
Biden 54.0% Trump 42.0%
Siena College/The New York Times UpshotLV 10/2
Biden 49.0% Trump 42.0%
YouGovLV 10/2
Biden 51.0% Trump 44.0%
Siena College/The New York Times UpshotLV 9/27
Biden 49.0% Trump 40.0%
IBD/TIPPRV 9/26
Biden 48.9% Trump 43.6%
ABC News/The Washington PostRV 9/26
Biden 54.0% Trump 44.0%
Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchRV 9/23
Biden 51.0% Trump 43.0%
Baldwin Wallace UniversityLV 9/22
Biden 47.3% Trump 44.6%
Trafalgar GroupLV 9/21
Biden 48.1% Trump 45.9%
YouGovRV 9/21
Biden 49.0% Trump 44.0%
Change ResearchLV 9/20
Biden 49.0% Trump 45.0%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeRV 9/20
Biden 49.0% Trump 40.0%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research GroupLV 9/19
Biden 53.0% Trump 42.0%
Trafalgar GroupLV 9/17
Biden 47.3% Trump 44.9%
CPECLV 9/17
Biden 50.3% Trump 45.4%
IpsosLV 9/16
Biden 49.0% Trump 46.0%
CiviqsRV 9/15
Biden 52.0% Trump 45.0%
Marist CollegeRV 9/7
Biden 52.0% Trump 44.0%
Morning ConsultLV 9/7
Biden 50.0% Trump 45.0%
Change ResearchLV 9/6
Biden 50.0% Trump 46.0%
TargetSmart/William & MaryLV 9/6
Biden 51.0% Trump 44.0%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.LV 9/4
Biden 44.0% Trump 42.0%
Quinnipiac UniversityLV 9/1
Biden 52.0% Trump 44.0%
ALG ResearchLV 9/1
Biden 50.0% Trump 44.0%
Monmouth UniversityRV 8/31
Biden 49.0% Trump 45.0%
Morning ConsultLV 8/30
Biden 49.0% Trump 45.0%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchLV 8/27
Biden 47.82% Trump 48.15%
GQR Research (GQRR)LV 8/24
Biden 52.0% Trump 43.0%
Change ResearchLV 8/23
Biden 49.0% Trump 46.0%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeRV 8/23
Biden 49.0% Trump 42.0%
Global Strategy GroupRV 8/19
Biden 53.0% Trump 43.0%
CiviqsRV 8/17
Biden 51.0% Trump 44.0%
Polls consist of LV and RV polls ranked C and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.

Presidential Election Model 2020

About Us

ORACLE of Blair is a project by seniors at Montgomery Blair High School in Silver Spring, Maryland. It was created during the Fall 2020 Political Statistics course taught by Mr. David Stein. Questions for the students about the model can be sent to mbhs.polistat@gmail.com, while Mr. Stein can be reached directly through the Blair website.

Please Note

Any views or opinions expressed on this site are those of the students in Montgomery Blair High School's 2020 Political Statistics class and do not necessarily reflect the official position of Montgomery Blair High School.