Wisconsin 10 votes

Biden is favored to win

27%
73%
46.7%
53.3%
0.39
-6.6
Candidate Predicted Vote % Win Prob.
Donald Trump 46.7% 27%
Joe Biden 53.3% 73%

About Wisconsin

Wisconsin has leaned towards the Democrats in the last few decades, but may be leaning Republican again. Wisconsin's voters are divided - 42% Democrat and 42% Republican. Similarly, Wisconsin's Congressional makeup is split among 4 Democrats and 6 Republicans. Key political issues include healthcare, education reform, and iron mining regulations. Known as "America's Dairyland," Wisconsin is also home to the first ice cream sundae, concocted in 1881.

Chance of winning over time

We run our model at least once a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.

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Nov 3

Oct 12

Demographically similar states

All states

Past Election History

2016
Clinton 46.5% Trump 47.2%
2012
Obama 52.8% Romney 45.9%
2008
Obama 56.2% McCain 42.3%
2004
Kerry 49.7% Bush 49.3%
2000
Gore 47.8% Bush 47.6%

Recent polls

Research Co.LV 11/1
Biden 50.0% Trump 42.0%
CiviqsLV 11/1
Biden 51.0% Trump 47.0%
Change ResearchLV 11/1
Biden 53.0% Trump 45.0%
IpsosLV 11/1
Biden 53.0% Trump 43.0%
AtlasIntelLV 10/31
Biden 50.6% Trump 48.7%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.LV 10/31
Biden 49.0% Trump 46.0%
Morning ConsultLV 10/31
Biden 53.8% Trump 40.5%
Emerson CollegeLV 10/30
Biden 52.7% Trump 45.4%
Siena College/The New York Times UpshotLV 10/30
Biden 52.0% Trump 41.0%
SSRSRV 10/30
Biden 51.0% Trump 44.0%
IpsosLV 10/26
Biden 53.0% Trump 44.0%
Trafalgar GroupLV 10/25
Biden 47.5% Trump 47.1%
Marquette University Law SchoolRV 10/25
Biden 47.0% Trump 43.0%
ABC News/The Washington PostRV 10/25
Biden 56.0% Trump 39.0%
Gravis MarketingLV 10/23
Biden 54.0% Trump 43.0%
YouGovRV 10/21
Biden 51.0% Trump 43.0%
Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchRV 10/20
Biden 48.0% Trump 44.0%
RMG ResearchLV 10/20
Biden 50.0% Trump 44.0%
Morning ConsultLV 10/20
Biden 54.0% Trump 42.0%
Change ResearchLV 10/19
Biden 52.0% Trump 44.0%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.LV 10/19
Biden 45.0% Trump 45.0%
Latino DecisionsLV 10/19
Biden 50.0% Trump 45.0%
IpsosLV 10/19
Biden 51.0% Trump 45.0%
Trafalgar GroupLV 10/16
Biden 47.6% Trump 46.3%
YouGovLV 10/16
Biden 51.0% Trump 46.0%
Trafalgar GroupLV 10/13
Biden 47.3% Trump 45.4%
David Binder ResearchLV 10/13
Biden 53.0% Trump 43.0%
Siena College/The New York Times UpshotLV 10/11
Biden 51.0% Trump 41.0%
CiviqsLV 10/11
Biden 53.0% Trump 45.0%
IpsosLV 10/11
Biden 52.0% Trump 45.0%
Morning ConsultLV 10/11
Biden 51.0% Trump 44.0%
Baldwin Wallace UniversityLV 10/8
Biden 49.2% Trump 42.5%
IpsosLV 10/5
Biden 50.0% Trump 44.0%
Change ResearchLV 10/4
Biden 51.0% Trump 44.0%
Marquette University Law SchoolRV 10/4
Biden 46.0% Trump 41.0%
Trafalgar GroupLV 9/28
Biden 47.2% Trump 44.3%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.LV 9/26
Biden 48.0% Trump 46.0%
Trafalgar GroupLV 9/25
Biden 47.7% Trump 44.9%
Marist CollegeRV 9/24
Biden 52.0% Trump 44.0%
Baldwin Wallace UniversityLV 9/22
Biden 50.3% Trump 41.0%
YouGovRV 9/21
Biden 49.0% Trump 44.0%
Change ResearchLV 9/20
Biden 51.0% Trump 42.0%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research GroupLV 9/19
Biden 51.0% Trump 44.0%
IpsosLV 9/16
Biden 48.0% Trump 43.0%
Morning ConsultLV 9/16
Biden 51.0% Trump 42.0%
CiviqsRV 9/15
Biden 51.0% Trump 44.0%
Morning ConsultLV 9/15
Biden 51.0% Trump 42.0%
Morning ConsultLV 9/14
Biden 51.0% Trump 42.0%
SSRSRV 9/13
Biden 52.0% Trump 41.0%
ABC News/The Washington PostRV 9/13
Biden 50.0% Trump 46.0%
Morning ConsultLV 9/13
Biden 50.0% Trump 43.0%
Morning ConsultLV 9/12
Biden 50.0% Trump 43.0%
Morning ConsultLV 9/11
Biden 50.0% Trump 43.0%
Siena College/The New York Times UpshotLV 9/10
Biden 48.0% Trump 43.0%
Morning ConsultLV 9/10
Biden 50.0% Trump 43.0%
Morning ConsultLV 9/9
Biden 50.0% Trump 42.0%
Emerson CollegeLV 9/8
Biden 51.43% Trump 44.78%
Morning ConsultLV 9/8
Biden 51.0% Trump 42.0%
Morning ConsultLV 9/7
Biden 51.0% Trump 43.0%
Change ResearchLV 9/6
Biden 50.0% Trump 44.0%
Morning ConsultLV 9/6
Biden 51.0% Trump 43.0%
Morning ConsultLV 9/5
Biden 50.0% Trump 44.0%
YouGovLV 9/4
Biden 50.0% Trump 44.0%
Morning ConsultLV 9/4
Biden 51.0% Trump 44.0%
Marquette University Law SchoolRV 9/3
Biden 48.0% Trump 41.0%
Morning ConsultLV 9/3
Biden 52.0% Trump 42.0%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchLV 9/2
Biden 53.09% Trump 44.72%
Morning ConsultLV 9/2
Biden 52.0% Trump 42.0%
Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchRV 9/1
Biden 49.0% Trump 41.0%
Morning ConsultLV 9/1
Biden 52.0% Trump 42.0%
Morning ConsultLV 8/31
Biden 53.0% Trump 42.0%
Morning ConsultLV 8/30
Biden 52.0% Trump 43.0%
Morning ConsultLV 8/29
Biden 51.0% Trump 43.0%
Morning ConsultLV 8/28
Biden 51.0% Trump 42.0%
Morning ConsultLV 8/27
Biden 52.0% Trump 42.0%
Morning ConsultLV 8/26
Biden 52.0% Trump 42.0%
Morning ConsultLV 8/25
Biden 51.0% Trump 42.0%
Morning ConsultLV 8/24
Biden 50.0% Trump 43.0%
Change ResearchLV 8/23
Biden 49.0% Trump 44.0%
Trafalgar GroupLV 8/23
Biden 45.4% Trump 46.2%
Morning ConsultLV 8/23
Biden 51.0% Trump 43.0%
Morning ConsultLV 8/22
Biden 50.0% Trump 44.0%
Morning ConsultLV 8/21
Biden 50.0% Trump 43.0%
CiviqsRV 8/17
Biden 51.0% Trump 45.0%
Polls consist of LV and RV polls ranked C and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.

Presidential Election Model 2020

About Us

ORACLE of Blair is a project by seniors at Montgomery Blair High School in Silver Spring, Maryland. It was created during the Fall 2020 Political Statistics course taught by Mr. David Stein. Questions for the students about the model can be sent to mbhs.polistat@gmail.com, while Mr. Stein can be reached directly through the Blair website.

Please Note

Any views or opinions expressed on this site are those of the students in Montgomery Blair High School's 2020 Political Statistics class and do not necessarily reflect the official position of Montgomery Blair High School.