An analysis of how allocating electors proportionally by popular vote within the states would change the election.
Good Polls and Bad PollsOct. 28, 2020, 1:47 p.m.
If we only used “A” rated polls, or “A” and “B” rated polls, does it impact the results of our model?
2016 vs. 2020 ModelsOct. 28, 2020, 10:11 p.m.
To what degree do the 2016 and 2020 student models differ in battleground states?
How does the Oracle compare to FiveThirtyEight in the MidWest?
An analysis of the statistical differences between internet and phone predictive polling results in Texas.
What Happened to the Lone Star State?Oct. 29, 2020, 12:57 p.m.
Texas has suddenly become a swing state. Why?
We looked at the data to see how the election would turn out if we had the same polling errors as 2016 and 2012.
Averaging Polls and Sampling DurationOct. 29, 2020, 1:14 p.m.
An analysis of how a poll's duration can affect the accuracy of the poll.
Obama vs. Trump Approval RatingsOct. 29, 2020, 1:37 p.m.
How Trump's approval ratings relate to Obama's and how they can be used to predict the outcome of the election.
Predicted: Election night Trump win becomes Biden victory once mail-in-ballots are counted
A look at how third party votes affected the 2016 election and how they might make an impact on the 2020 election
Is Home State Advantage Real?Oct. 29, 2020, 4:49 p.m.
A rudimentary analysis of home state advantage in previous elections and how it may affect the 2020 election.
A deeper dive into our new poll averaging method known as the by week z-test.
A look at what ORACLE predicts when Trump wins certain states and a comparison with the FiveThirtyEight predictions.
Analysis of Swing State PollingOct. 29, 2020, 10:34 p.m.
An analysis of polling errors in swing states based off previous RealClearPolitics polling data and election results.
Why Demographics Hurt TrumpOct. 30, 2020, 10:36 a.m.
Analyzing what happens to model predictions if demographics were omitted. Spoilers: Trump's win percentage increases by 4%.
Analyzing the impact of the Cost of Voting Index on our model & examining COVID's effect on the Cost of Voting Index.
The Variance ProblemOct. 30, 2020, 1:51 p.m.
A separate model in which we lowered state-by-state variance and changed the state correlation scheme ("Adding After the Fact") to new a scheme "Seeding Simulations."
An analysis of how Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis and the Republican National Convention affected his chance of winning the election.
What about the Senate?Oct. 31, 2020, 11:37 a.m.
Relationship between the ORACLE’s predictions and polling averages in the 2020 Senate Elections
Looking at whether raising cost of voting has historically benefitted the Republican presidential candidate
A comparison of two models’ state variance data and the implications of differences between the models.
A look at the differences between predictions from the Oracle, 538, and The Economist in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and Texas.
Analyzing the COVID Severity in States and Any Potential Relations to Trump's Approval Rating in That State
A comparison of the voting trends between demographically correlated states.
Does the Cost of Voting Index play a role in the election model?
We compared polls from 2016 to 2020 in Republican states to see if Trump's presidency has changed its place in polls and by how much.